Daily Briefs

Air supremacy declared over Iran. Phase 2 systematic destruction begins. Pre-dawn IRGC drone wave 91% intercepted. Kurdish forces hold NW Iran. Spain refuses US bases. 25% war support. Hospital generator crisis in Tehran.

Day 5 ended with the conflict at its most complex: Iran named Mojtaba Khamenei as acting Supreme Leader under fire. Russia and China vetoed the UN ceasefire. Israel blacked out 60% of Tehran's power grid. Hezbollah struck Haifa's oil refinery. The US submarine sank the Iranian frigate Iris Dena in the Indian Ocean (first warship kill since WWII). Kurdish militias launched the first ground incursion into Iranian territory. France deployed the Charles de Gaulle carrier. Brent crude hit $165. MAGA base fractures emerged. Iran's death toll reached 1,347. The conflict is now global in scope and multi-front in character.

Day 4 of Operation Epic Fury saw simultaneous escalation across five fronts: Israel launched a ground incursion into southern Lebanon while IDF airstrikes killed the IRGC's Quds Force Lebanon Corps commander in Tehran; CENTCOM confirmed 1,700+ targets struck including missile sites, ships, submarines, and command centers; Israel struck a compound Iran said was developing nuclear weapons capabilities; Hezbollah launched drone swarms at Ramat David and Meron airbases; and Iran's RAF Akrotiri sovereign base in Cyprus was struck. Casualties mount globally: 787 confirmed dead in Iran, 6 US service members killed (Kuwait), 11 Israelis killed, 8 dead in Gulf states. The Strait of Hormuz remains effectively closed with IRGC threatening to set ablaze any ship that tries to pass. Markets continued to slide with Brent crude surging and equity markets down 2-3% globally. Germany's Merz raised alarm about the absence of a US post-war plan for Iran. Iran's Defence Ministry warned it has not yet deployed its most advanced weapons — a stark signal of continued escalation risk.

March 2 — Day 3 saw the conflict expand to new fronts. Iran struck RAF Akrotiri — the UK's sovereign base in Cyprus — for the first time, the first attack on European soil in the conflict. QatarEnergy halted all LNG production after Iranian strikes on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery went offline, removing 550,000 bbl/day. Trump delivered a White House address laying out 4 objectives and suggesting a 4-5 week timeline. Hegseth's Pentagon briefing called it 'not an endless war' with a 3-part mission. Hezbollah launched missiles and drones at Israel. CENTCOM confirmed 3 US F-15s were shot down by Kuwaiti air defense by mistake — the first US aircraft losses. Iran struck the US Embassy in Riyadh.

March 1 — Day 2 of Operation Epic Fury brought the first American deaths of the conflict: three US service members were killed at a makeshift operations center at a civilian port in Kuwait. Israel suffered its first major domestic strike as a missile hit Beit Shemesh, killing 9 in a synagogue and bomb shelter. Iran formed an interim leadership council (Pezeshkian, Mohseni-Eje'i, Qalibaf). Trump claimed the US had sunk 9 Iranian warships and 'largely destroyed' Iran's air force. The first rockets from Lebanon struck northern Israel for the first time in months. CENTCOM confirmed its first use of LUCAS kamikaze drones. Oil surged 12-14% as OPEC+ announced a modest increase. A Starmer-Macron-Merz joint statement accused Iran of pursuing a 'scorched earth strategy.'

February 28, 2026 — Day 1 of Operation Epic Fury began in the early hours with a sweeping joint US-Israel strike campaign against Iran. B-2 Spirit bombers dropped GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators on Fordow and Natanz — the largest B-2 strike in history. Khamenei's compound was struck; he was confirmed dead within hours alongside the IRGC Commander, Defense Minister, and NSC Secretary. Iran launched 35+ ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation, hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa. Iran simultaneously struck US military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, anchoring 200+ vessels. Iranians celebrated in Tehran streets. The worst single mass casualty event of the conflict — a strike on a girls' school in Minab — killed 168 children.