Daily brief
Day 1 — Opening Strikes: Khamenei Killed, Nuclear Sites Hit, Iran Retaliates
2026-02-28
February 28, 2026 — Day 1 of Operation Epic Fury began in the early hours with a sweeping joint US-Israel strike campaign against Iran. B-2 Spirit bombers dropped GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrators on Fordow and Natanz — the largest B-2 strike in history. Khamenei's compound was struck; he was confirmed dead within hours alongside the IRGC Commander, Defense Minister, and NSC Secretary. Iran launched 35+ ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation, hitting Tel Aviv and Haifa. Iran simultaneously struck US military bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan and Saudi Arabia. The IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed, anchoring 200+ vessels. Iranians celebrated in Tehran streets. The worst single mass casualty event of the conflict — a strike on a girls' school in Minab — killed 168 children.
Key facts
- •B-2 bombers drop GBU-57 MOPs on Fordow and Natanz — largest B-2 strike in history
- •Khamenei, IRGC Commander, Defense Minister, NSC Secretary all confirmed killed
- •Iran retaliates: 35+ ballistic missiles strike Tel Aviv and Haifa
- •Iran hits US bases in Bahrain, Qatar, Kuwait, UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia simultaneously
- •IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed — 200+ vessels anchored
- •Girls' school in Minab struck — 168 children killed (worst mass casualty event)
- •Iranians celebrate in Tehran streets following Khamenei's death
Casualties
| Faction | Killed | Wounded | Civilians | Injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| iran | 200 | — | 100 | 450 |
| us | — | 8 | — | — |
| israel | 4 | 22 | 2 | — |
Economic impact
Brent Crude
+8%
Day 1 opening
S&P 500
-3.1%
Emergency selloff
Gold
+2.2%
Safe haven surge
VIX
+55%
Fear index spike
USD Index
+1.3%
Safe haven demand
Opening day of the conflict immediately disrupted two of the world's most critical maritime chokepoints. The IRGC closure of the Strait of Hormuz halted ~14M bbl/day of oil transit. Brent surged 6% on initial trading. The dual closure of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb is unprecedented.
Scenarios
Nuclear Escalation
8%Dirty bomb / radiological
Iran deploys radiological device or nuclear program remnant as weapon of last resort. Natanz/Fordow strikes risk catastrophic contamination.
Full Regional War
35%Multi-front collapse
Iran, Hezbollah, Houthis, PMF all escalate simultaneously. US bases across the Gulf overrun. Regional war involving Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq.
Rapid Capitulation
20%Iran sues for peace
Iran's leadership vacuum and military degradation forces an immediate ceasefire request through Oman or Turkey mediation within 7-10 days.
Prolonged Air Campaign
37%4-8 week grinding war
Campaign continues with daily strikes. Iran retaliates but cannot prevent degradation. Ceasefire in 4-6 weeks from position of Iranian weakness.