Conflict narratives
Showing 261–270 of 289 narratives
P&I insurance pulled -- 20% of world oil supply cut off
On Day 6, the Strait of Hormuz achieved effective closure through insurance markets. P&I clubs withdrew all coverage effective March 5. 150 vessels anchored outside. 20% of global daily oil blocked. Brent above . Goldman base case.
PJAK and Komala hold three district centres as IRGC counterattack fails
On Day 5, Kurdish militia forces — primarily PJAK and Komala, with KDPI elements — crossed the border from Iraqi Kurdistan into Iran's West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces. By Day 6, they are holding at least three district centres near Piranshahr. The IRGC's 44th Armoured Division launched a counterattack but was repelled. This is the first time non-state forces have held Iranian territory since 1979. Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga forces are on standby at the border; the US has stated it neither encourages nor discourages cross-border operations, which observers read as tacit acceptance. The PMF in Iraq has responded by firing rockets toward Kurdish positions near Sulaymaniyah, threatening to escalate the conflict inside Iraq.
PJAK militia crosses into NW Iran — first ground incursion of the war
At 22:46 local time on Day 5, Kurdish Iranian militias (PJAK, KDPI, Komala) launched a coordinated ground offensive from Iraqi Kurdistan into Iran's West Azerbaijan and Kurdistan provinces. Thousands of fighters crossed the border, confirmed by a US official to Axios and Fox News. This is the first ground incursion into Iranian territory during the entire conflict. The IRGC, already degraded by 5 days of air strikes and stretched across a multi-front war, must now defend a rear-area ground insurgency simultaneously. Iran's Supreme National Security Council convened in emergency session. ISW: 'This could be the most strategically significant development of Day 5.'
Mojtaba Khamenei takes power — Israel immediately threatens to kill him
Hours after Khamenei's burial, Iran's Assembly of Experts convened at a secret location and voted 68-18 to appoint Mojtaba Khamenei as acting Supreme Leader. His first words ruled out negotiations. Israel's Defence Minister immediately reiterated the public assassination threat. Russia and China vetoed the UN ceasefire resolution the same evening — removing international pressure for surrender. The succession confirms Iran has constitutional continuity and hardline IRGC elements control the transition. The conflict will continue.
Israel kills Iran's power — Hezbollah hits Israel's refinery
As darkness fell on Day 5, both sides escalated to infrastructure warfare. Israel struck Iran's power grid — taking 60% of Tehran offline and hitting two major power stations. Simultaneously, Hezbollah launched 240+ rockets at Haifa, scoring a direct hit on the BAZAN refinery. The IRGC fired a coordinated 65-missile night wave, achieving 11% penetration. In the Gulf of Oman, USS Houston sank an IRGC submarine caught attempting to mine international shipping lanes. Oil hit $165. The night of March 4-5 marks the conflict's shift from precision military targeting to infrastructure warfare.
Khamenei funeral begins as Mojtaba emerges — Israel threatens to kill any successor
Five days after the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, Iran began his funeral ceremony at the Grand Mosalla of Tehran — even as Israeli bombs continued to fall on the capital. Reuters confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei, Khamenei's 56-year-old son, is alive and favoured to succeed his father, marking a potential dynastic turn in Iran's revolutionary system. The Assembly of Experts, constitutionally responsible for selecting a new supreme leader, had reportedly been convening sessions when its Qom office was struck. Israeli Defence Minister Israel Katz issued an explicit public threat to assassinate any appointed successor, turning the succession process itself into a targeting opportunity. Iran's foreign minister accused Trump of 'betraying diplomacy' and 'bombing the negotiation table.' The succession crisis is now the central political question of the conflict.
First direct NATO engagement of Iranian munitions — ballistic missile heading for Turkey intercepted
In a watershed moment for the conflict, NATO air and missile defence assets stationed in the eastern Mediterranean destroyed an Iranian ballistic missile heading toward Turkish airspace. The missile had been tracked crossing Iraqi and Syrian airspace before NATO systems engaged it. Turkey's Ministry of Defence confirmed the intercept, and FM Fidan conveyed 'the strongest protest' to Iran's Araqchi. NATO spokesperson Allison Hart condemned the targeting of Turkey, invoking collective defence language. The missile's target was unclear — possibly Incirlik Air Base, the joint Turkish-US facility. Simultaneously, Cyprus closed Larnaca airspace after detecting a suspicious object, and Greece deployed frigates and F-16s to defend the island. This marks the first time NATO has directly engaged Iranian munitions in combat.
IDF ground forces enter southern Lebanon as Hezbollah rockets hit Haifa and Upper Galilee
While conducting the largest air campaign in its history against Iran, Israel opened a ground front in Lebanon. IDF forces pushed into southern Lebanon to suppress Hezbollah rocket and drone fire that had been targeting Haifa and the Upper Galilee since Iran directed its proxy to activate. The IDF simultaneously struck Hezbollah command centres and weapons storage in Dahiyeh, Beirut's southern suburbs, and the Bekaa Valley. Forced displacement orders were issued for 59 Lebanese areas. Six people were killed in Israeli strikes on southern Lebanon. Early reports suggest Israel may have targeted senior Hezbollah figures Naim Qassem and Mohammad Raad, though outcomes remain unconfirmed. Lebanon's total casualties since the conflict began stand at 40 killed and 246 injured.
IRGC's largest single drone salvo targets Kuwait, Iraq, and US facilities
The IRGC launched its largest single retaliatory wave — 230 drones — at US military facilities across the Gulf. Named targets included Ali Al Salem Air Base and Camp Arifjan in Kuwait, and a US base in Erbil, Iraq. The IRGC called these attacks 'among our first powerful steps,' framing five days of attacks as merely preliminary. The human cost was immediate: an 11-year-old Kuwaiti girl was killed by falling shrapnel at Al-Amiri Hospital. In Iraq, drones targeted the US embassy logistics facility near Baghdad airport, while the 'Islamic Resistance in Iraq' claimed 23+ drone strikes against US assets in Erbil. Saudi Arabia intercepted a drone in the Eastern Province, and the Ras Tanura refinery — Aramco's largest — was hit by a projectile for the second time.
Israel escalates from military to political targets — presidential office, Basij, internal security struck
In a significant escalation, the Israeli Air Force launched what it described as a 'broad wave of strikes' targeting government infrastructure across Tehran. Unlike previous waves focused on military installations, this 10th wave struck the presidential compound, Basij command buildings, and the internal security headquarters — all political targets signaling a shift from military degradation to regime destabilisation. Explosions were simultaneously reported in Karaj and Isfahan. The IAEA confirmed damage visible at two buildings near Isfahan's nuclear site but stated no nuclear material was affected. Five people were killed in the Tehran attacks alone, and schools were reportedly hit in Karaj. This wave brought the total Israeli munitions dropped to over 1,200 across 24 of Iran's 31 provinces.