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CRITICALINTELLIGENCE

US intel: only ~1/3 of Iran's missile arsenal confirmed destroyed; another third status uncertain — Reuters

·Washington DC

Five US intelligence sources told Reuters that the US can only confirm ~1/3 of Iran's vast missile arsenal has been destroyed. Status of another ~1/3 is unclear — bombing likely damaged/destroyed/buried those missiles in underground bunkers. Same assessment for Iran's drone capability. Directly contradicts Trump's statement that Iran has 'very few rockets left.' CENTCOM: US struck 10,000+ Iranian military targets; sunk 92% of Iran's large naval vessels.

Five people familiar with US intelligence told Reuters that the United States can only determine with certainty that it has destroyed about a third of Iran's vast missile arsenal as the war nears its one-month mark. The status of around another third is less clear, but sources say bombing likely damaged, destroyed, or buried those missiles in underground tunnels and bunkers. One source said the intelligence was similar for Iran's drone capability — some degree of certainty about a third having been destroyed. 'Most of Iran's missiles are either destroyed or inaccessible, but Tehran still has a significant missile inventory and may be able to recover some buried or damaged missiles once fighting stops,' sources indicated. The assessment directly contradicts President Trump's public remark that Iran has 'very few rockets left.' A senior US official told Reuters: 'I don't know if we'll ever have an accurate number.' US strikes have hit more than 10,000 Iranian military targets as of Wednesday; CENTCOM confirmed sinking 92% of Iran's large naval vessels. The Pentagon and White House did not respond to comment requests.
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Actor responses

United StatesNEUTRALINTELLIGENCE

Reuters/5 intel sources: US confirmed ~1/3 of Iran's missile arsenal destroyed; ~1/3 status uncertain but likely damaged/buried. CENTCOM struck 10,000+ targets; sunk 92% of Iran's large naval vessels. Senior official: 'I don't know if we'll ever have an accurate number.'

IranSUPPORTINGMILITARY

Iran's continued ballistic missile launches on Day 28 (4 salvos) are consistent with the intelligence assessment that Tehran retains a significant missile inventory despite 28 days of intensive US-Israeli strikes. The possibility of recovering buried missiles post-conflict adds to Iran's long-term strategic calculus.

Israel Defense ForcesNEUTRALINTELLIGENCE

The US intelligence assessment — only 1/3 confirmed destroyed — supports Israel's Katz warning that 'strikes will intensify and expand to additional targets.' If Iran retains 2/3 of its pre-war missile stockpile, the military case for continued escalation remains strong.

Sources