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CRITICALINTELLIGENCE

Officials: Trump leaning toward Iran ground invasion — concedes 15-point plan will fail, Kharg op underway

·Washington DC / Persian Gulf

Officials from two mediating countries told TOI that Trump appears to be leaning toward ordering a major US ground operation against Iran, convinced Tehran will capitulate. The US privately concedes Iran is unlikely to accept the 15-point plan. Separately, WSJ reported the Pentagon is weighing deploying an additional 10,000 ground troops to the Middle East to expand Trump's military options. Thousands already pre-positioned toward Kharg Island. Both mediating officials say Iran will not capitulate regardless of a ground operation, but will now accept terms it refused before the war.

Officials from mediating countries told TOI on 26 March 2026 that Trump appears to be leaning toward ordering a major US ground operation against Iran, convinced Tehran will buckle. The US privately concedes Iran is unlikely to agree to the 15-point plan and has dispatched thousands of troops to capture Kharg Island. A second mediating country official warned holding Kharg will require far more soldiers and time — far beyond the 4-to-6-week public window. Saturday marks 4 weeks; US claims ahead of schedule. Both officials say Iran will not capitulate regardless of a ground operation, but will now agree to terms it refused before the war. Thousands of additional US Marines are arriving around the Friday deadline.
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Actor responses

United StatesSUPPORTINGMILITARY

Officials: Trump leaning toward ground invasion. US privately concedes 15-point plan unlikely to succeed. Troops dispatched to capture Kharg. Thousands of Marines arriving around Friday deadline.

IranOPPOSINGMILITARY

Mediating officials: Iran will not capitulate regardless of ground operation, but will accept terms it refused before the war. Iran has not commented on US ground invasion plans.

Israel Defense ForcesSUPPORTINGMILITARY

Israel has coordinated closely with US throughout. Israeli strikes on Kharg Island fortifications have been preparing the operational environment for any US ground action.

Sources