IRGC threatens complete Hormuz closure if Trump acts on energy infrastructure — escalates beyond FM Araghchi position

Iran's Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) issued a direct military threat on Day 24: if the United States carries out threatened strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure, Iran will completely close the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which approximately 20% of global oil supply flows. The IRGC statement is distinct from and more escalatory than Foreign Minister Araghchi's earlier diplomatic framing. Araghchi argued that insurance companies were responsible for the shipping halt, framing it as a market consequence. The IRGC explicitly frames complete closure as a deliberate military retaliation if infrastructure is struck. **Context — Hormuz Deadline:** Trump issued an ultimatum requiring Iran to open the Strait by 23:44 GMT on March 23. As of early morning Day 24, Iran has not complied and shows no sign of doing so. The IRGC warning appears timed to deter Trump from ordering energy infrastructure strikes as a response to Hormuz non-compliance. **Economic stakes:** The IEA director stated the crisis has already removed 11 million barrels per day from global supply — more than both 1970s oil shocks combined. A complete Hormuz closure would be catastrophic for global energy markets, Gulf economies, and US allies in the region.