Israeli Officials Float 'Slow Collapse' Scenario for Iran — 'Cracks Plain to See' in IRGC

Israeli defence officials are outlining an internal scenario in which Iran's regime does not immediately collapse during the ongoing conflict but instead undergoes a gradual erosion afterward, Channel 12 reports. The scenario — referred to in internal discussions as a 'slow collapse' — envisions the war ending with the current regime still in place but significantly weakened, followed by a gradual destabilisation driven by Iran's worsening economic crisis, widespread public dissatisfaction, the emergence of alternative leadership, sustained regional pressure from Gulf states, and growing diplomatic isolation. Crucially, officials cited by Channel 12 say Israeli assessments indicate 'cracks' within Iran's leadership, the IRGC, and the military chain of command that are 'plain to see.' Among the most striking details: Israeli officials believe motivation among some Iranian military units — including air defence forces — has undergone a 'dramatic drop,' with commanders reportedly forcing soldiers who are scared of Israeli strikes to continue carrying out missile launches. This detail suggests the Iranian air defence and missile forces are beginning to fracture psychologically — a critical indicator if accurate. Compelling soldiers to operate under fear rather than motivation significantly degrades operational effectiveness and reliability. The 'slow collapse' framing also signals something about Israeli war objectives: Israeli officials appear to have shifted away from expecting or planning for rapid regime change, and are instead thinking in terms of a post-war degradation process. This is more cautious than some earlier Israeli rhetoric and may reflect a more realistic assessment of Iran's institutional resilience.