IMF warns Iran war could significantly darken global economic outlook — energy, inflation, growth at risk

The International Monetary Fund issued a stark economic warning at the Milken Institute conference in Washington, saying the Iran war could be 'very impactful on the global economy across a range of metrics.' IMF senior official Dan Katz — who assumed the fund's No. 2 role late last year after serving as chief of staff to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent — pointed specifically to inflation and economic growth as primary concerns. 'The persistence of the conflict in particular is going to drive most of the impact,' Katz said. The warning came as Brent crude climbed above $80 a barrel to multi-month highs, gasoline prices in the US jumped 11 cents per gallon overnight, and the S&P 500 opened nearly 2% lower. Global stock declines in Asia and Europe preceded the US open. Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura refinery remained offline after a drone strike, removing 550,000 barrels per day from supply. QatarEnergy's LNG production remained halted following Iranian attacks on Ras Laffan and Mesaieed. Earlier analysis by Bernstein had warned prices could reach $120-150 per barrel in a prolonged conflict. Katz said the fund would be watching energy prices, tourism, and regional infrastructure disruption as leading indicators.