US evacuates Oman — conflict's threat radius now reaches Iranian back-channel state

The US State Department's order directing non-emergency government employees and families to leave Oman marks a significant expansion of the conflict's assessed threat radius. Oman has historically served as the most reliable back-channel between the United States and Iran, hosting the secret negotiations that led to the 2015 nuclear deal and multiple rounds of discreet diplomatic contacts since. That Oman — a state that has maintained careful neutrality and served as a communication bridge — is now judged too dangerous for non-essential American personnel signals that Iranian targeting has expanded beyond states that host US military forces (Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, UAE) to states that host US diplomatic presence. The evacuation follows the US Embassy Baghdad ordering all Americans out of Iraq after an Iranian drone strike on the embassy's helipad on Day 15. The pattern — Iraq, now Oman — shows Iran systematically targeting US civilian and diplomatic infrastructure across the region to expand its coercion leverage.