Israel's missile shield is running dry — US races to resupply before Arrow stockpiles collapse

US officials revealed on Day 16 that Israel has formally notified Washington of critically low ballistic missile interceptor stockpiles. The Arrow 3, Arrow 2, and David's Sling systems — Israel's primary layers against Iranian ballistic missiles — have been firing at unprecedented rates since February 28. This is precisely the attrition outcome Iran's IRGC missile campaign was designed to achieve. Every Iranian ballistic missile launched forces a more expensive interceptor to be consumed. At current rates, if interceptor stocks are exhausted before US emergency resupply can arrive, Israel's cities would face direct Iranian ballistic missile impact without active interception. The Day 16 Iranian barrage — which caused fires in Holon and fragments across the Tel Aviv district — was intercepted, but at the cost of further depleting already-critical stockpiles. The Pentagon is assessing emergency Arrow interceptor and Patriot resupply, but US defense industrial capacity for high-end interceptors is constrained. This development represents a potential strategic turning point: if Israel cannot maintain active missile defense, the entire nature of the conflict changes.