The Hormuz Gambit
20% of global oil supply choked — markets in freefall
Within hours of the strikes, IRGC Navy forces moved to close the Strait of Hormuz — the chokepoint through which 20% of global oil supply transits daily. Over 200 vessels anchored at the strait's approaches as IRGC fast boats and sea mines created an exclusion zone. Brent crude surged 35% in pre-market trading. USS Gerald R. Ford's strike group responded with Tomahawk strikes on IRGC naval facilities at Bandar Abbas.
Key facts
- •Strait of Hormuz: 20% of global oil supply, 18-21M bbl/day transits daily
- •IRGC fast-attack craft deployed at strait's narrowest point (39km wide)
- •IRGC Commander Jabbari broadcast closure warning on VHF Channel 16 to ships
- •Ship-tracking showed 70% traffic reduction within 24 hours of closure
- •Iran's Hormuz card: maximum economic damage with minimum military investment
- •Trump's Navy escort order: direct challenge — sets up potential naval combat
Timeline
IRGC Navy activates Hormuz exclusion protocol — fast boats deployed
First commercial vessel (Maersk Kotka) turned back at gunpoint
Maersk, CMA CGM suspend all Gulf transits — 200+ vessels anchor
Brent crude +27% — NYSE circuit breakers triggered at open
USS Ford launches Tomahawk salvo against IRGC Bandar Abbas
IRGC declares Strait of Hormuz closed — 200+ vessels anchor
IRGC Commander Jabbari broadcasts on VHF Ch.16: passage will be set ablaze
Ship-tracking: 70% traffic reduction, oil supertanker rates hit all-time highs
Oil surges 12-14% — Brent at multi-month highs
Ras Tanura offline + QatarEnergy halted — full Gulf energy crisis declared
IMF warns of very impactful global economic consequences
Trump orders US Navy to escort tankers through Hormuz — IRGC standoff