Iraq declares force majeure on foreign oilfields — Hormuz disruption; exports reach zero by Day 23

Iraq declared force majeure on all oilfields developed by foreign oil companies on Day 21, as military operations in the region have disrupted navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, preventing most of the country's crude exports from moving, oil ministry sources told reporters. The declaration applies to all foreign-operated oilfields. Iraq is the world's fourth-largest oil producer, exporting approximately 3.3-3.5 million barrels per day — almost entirely through the Persian Gulf and Hormuz corridor. The country's main export terminal is Basra Oil Terminal in the northern Gulf. Major foreign operators affected include BP (Rumaila field, Iraq's largest), ExxonMobil (West Qurna-1), Shell (Majnoon), TotalEnergies (Halfaya), and China National Petroleum Corporation (multiple fields). These companies have long-term production-sharing agreements requiring physical delivery of crude that Iraq can no longer fulfill. Force majeure is a legal declaration that extraordinary circumstances (in this case, the Hormuz military closure) prevent contractual obligations from being met. Its declaration on all foreign-operated oilfields simultaneously is extraordinary — it affects billions of dollars in daily contracted crude deliveries to Asian and European customers. It also signals that Iraq's oil revenue — which funds approximately 90% of the Iraqi government budget — is now severely disrupted, creating fiscal and political pressure on Baghdad. Combined with the Hormuz zero-transit data and Saudi $180/bbl projections, Iraq's force majeure declaration marks the point at which the energy disruption moves from a price signal to a systemic supply disruption with contractual and legal consequences for the global oil market.