Dubai property market crashes — 37-49% transaction volume drop, 12-15% price cuts as war shatters safe-haven status

Dubai's property market is showing sharp early deterioration nearly three weeks into the US-Israel war on Iran. Real estate transaction volumes in the UAE fell 37% year-on-year and 49% month-on-month in the first 12 days of March, according to Goldman Sachs analysts in a note published this week. Some properties are being offered at discounts of 12-15% as sellers seek quick exits. Specific examples reviewed by Reuters via agents and WhatsApp groups: a property near the Burj Khalifa (world's tallest building) was being offered at $650,000 — down ~12% from a previous asking price of $735,000 — with the seller seeking a 'quick sale due to the current situation.' An off-plan flat in the coveted Palm Jumeirah was offered at 15% below its ~$2M original price. Dubai had positioned itself as a global wealth haven over the past decade, attracting Russian oligarchs post-2022 sanctions, Chinese capital, and regional wealth from Gulf states. That positioning is now under severe stress: Iran's strikes on UAE energy infrastructure and the Dubai airport area, the UAE Hezbollah network arrest, and the general regional insecurity have punctured the safe-haven narrative. A 49% month-on-month transaction collapse in the first 12 days of March indicates the market moved extremely rapidly in response to the outbreak of the war on March 1.