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Iraqi Kurdish forces on 'standby' for cross-border operations into Iran

·Iraqi Kurdistan, Iraq

US officials have reportedly asked Iraqi Kurds to assist in cross-border military operations into Iran, and Kurdish forces in northern Iraq are currently on 'standby.' This would open a third Kurdish front — in addition to PJAK from Iraqi Kurdistan already inside Iran — significantly expanding the ground dimension of the conflict.

Al Jazeera reports that US officials have asked Iraqi Kurdish authorities — specifically the Peshmerga command in Erbil — to assist in cross-border military operations targeting IRGC forces in western Iran. Iraqi Kurdish forces are currently on 'standby' pending a final decision. The Iraqi Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) faces a dilemma: (1) Cooperation with the US would mean directly opposing the IRGC — Iran has leverage over the KRG through economic ties and proximity; (2) Refusal may cost KRG US military support against PMF (Iraqi Shia militia) threats. The Iraqi federal government in Baghdad has condemned any cross-border operation from Iraqi territory as a violation of Iraqi sovereignty. PMF has already fired rockets at Kurdish positions in Sulaymaniyah in warning. If Iraqi Peshmerga join the operation, the Kurdish front in NW Iran becomes a major sustained ground campaign rather than a militia incursion. US officials declined to comment on the reported request.
iraqi-kurdistanpeshmergacross-borderiranground-warus-coordination

Actor responses

Iraqi PMFOPPOSINGMilitary Threat

PMF: 'Any Kurdish forces crossing from Iraq into Iran will be treated as enemy combatants. We have deployed to the border.'

United StatesNEUTRALBackground Statement

US official (background): 'We are aware of Kurdish force posture. We neither encourage nor discourage their decisions.'

Sources

T1Al Jazeera90% reliability

Related signals (1)

Al Jazeera English@@AJEnglishHIGH

Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga on 'standby' for cross-border operations into Iran. US: 'neither encourage nor discourage.' PMF warns Kurdish forces will be treated as enemy combatants.

PHAROS NOTEUS 'neither encourage nor discourage' = tacit approval. PMF threat makes this potential Iraq civil conflict trigger.