Day 44 — Sunday, April 12, 2026

Conflict Day 44 opens with the Islamabad ceasefire talks having collapsed. US and Iranian delegations failed to reach a deal after marathon negotiations that stretched into the early hours of April 12. The first round lasted about two hours, followed by a second round of technical discussions. The core dispute centered on Iran linking Lebanon ceasefire and asset unfreezing to Hormuz reopening, while the US demanded immediate Hormuz normalization as a precondition. VP Vance announced the failure at approximately 01:49 UTC on April 12. Israel continued Lebanon strikes throughout the talks — Hezbollah death toll has surpassed 2,000. Netanyahu reiterated Israel will continue fighting Iran regardless of US-Iran process. Pakistan mediated but could not close the gap. No new negotiation channel announced. Escalation remains at 95 — ceasefire framework on the brink of collapse.

Key facts

• •Islamabad ceasefire talks collapse — VP Vance announces US-Iran failed to reach a deal (01:49 UTC April 12)
• •Core dispute: Iran demands Lebanon ceasefire + asset unfreezing before Hormuz; US demands Hormuz first
• •Two rounds of talks: first ~2 hours, second technical round — stretched into early morning April 12
• •Israel continues Lebanon strikes throughout talks — Hezbollah death toll surpasses 2,000
• •Netanyahu: Israel will continue fighting Iran and proxies regardless of US-Iran negotiations
• •Pakistan NSA mediated but could not bridge the gap between the two sides
• •US warships passed through Strait of Hormuz on April 11 amid ongoing negotiations
• •Iran laid mines in Hormuz erratically — US officials say Iran cannot locate all its own mines

Casualties

Economic impact

Oil markets remain in the low 0s but face renewed upside risk following the collapse of Islamabad talks. The ceasefire framework is strained by Israel's Lebanon operations and Iran's inability to account for its own laid mines in Hormuz. Even a political agreement on Hormuz normalization faces a physical clearance problem that could take weeks. Any resumption of kinetic activity could push oil above 00.

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