Day 24

Day 24 of the US-Israel war on Iran delivered the conflict's most significant diplomatic pivot to date alongside continued military escalation. The day opened with IDF waves striking Tehran and Iran firing missiles across Israel, the West Bank, and Gulf states. By mid-morning, President Trump announced he was postponing all US strikes on Iranian power plants for five days, citing 'very good and productive conversations' with Tehran — the first explicit diplomatic opening of the war. Trump told reporters the US is discussing '15 points' with a senior Iranian figure (not new Supreme Leader Khamenei), with nuclear disarmament as 'number one, two and three.' Iran publicly denied all contact, with IRGC/Fars, the Foreign Ministry, and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf each issuing categorical rejections — while Oman FM Busaidi publicly confirmed Oman is working to establish 'safe passage arrangements' for Hormuz, corroborating that a back-channel exists. An Israeli official disclosed Washington has set April 9 as a target end-of-war date — about 21 days from now. The afternoon brought new alerts: the US Embassy in Muscat issued a shelter-in-place for all of Oman due to 'ongoing activity,' raising fears of Iranian strikes against the mediation hub. Pakistan was reported to be 10 days from running out of LNG as Qatar's export infrastructure suffers war-related disruption. Brent crude fell from $114 to $96 on Trump's diplomatic signals, while China raised fuel prices and India's EAM called US SecState Rubio on energy security. IDF continued striking Tehran and Lebanese bridges independently of the US pause, with the US-Israel divergence now openly acknowledged.

Key facts

• •Trump 5-day pause on US power plant strikes expires ~March 28; April 9 set as US war-end target date
• •Trump: US and Iran discussing '15 points' — nuclear disarmament is '#1, 2 and 3'; deal 'very soon'
• •US Embassy Muscat issued shelter-in-place for all of Oman citing 'ongoing activity' (~18:10 UTC)
• •Brent crude fell from $114 to $96 on Trump diplomatic signals; SPR release at 1.5M bbl/day
• •Pakistan 10 days from running out of LNG as Qatar export infrastructure disrupted by war
• •IDF struck Dallafa Bridge, southern Lebanon + new Tehran wave during US pause — US-Israel divergence public
• •Iran: IRGC/Fars, FM, and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf all denied any talks with US
• •Oman FM Busaidi confirmed Oman working on Hormuz 'safe passage arrangements' before Trump announcement

Casualties

Economic impact

The Iran war has triggered the worst energy crisis in recorded history. IEA chief Fatih Birol, speaking at Australia's National Press Club on Day 24, warned that 11 million barrels per day have been removed from global supply — more than both the 1973 and 1979 oil shocks combined. The gas market disruption (140 BCM lost) nearly doubles the 75 BCM lost during Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. At least 40 energy assets across nine countries have been severely or very severely damaged, with cascading effects on petrochemicals and fertilizers. Trump's Hormuz deadline — expiring at 23:44 GMT on March 23 — adds acute near-term risk: the IRGC has threatened complete Hormuz closure and strikes on Gulf energy and desalination infrastructure if the US targets Iranian power plants. Birol warned that 'no country will be immune' if the crisis continues in its current direction.

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