Daily brief
Day 13
2026-03-12
Day 13 of the US-Israel war on Iran. Overnight saw IRGC-Hezbollah execute their first declared joint operation against Israel. Iran expanded Gulf infrastructure attacks — drone struck building near Dubai Creek Harbour, oil tanks ablaze near Bahrain airport, explosive boats hit Iraqi tankers shutting all oil terminals. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait intercepted Iranian drones targeting Riyadh embassy district. IDF launched wide-scale strikes across Lebanon and drone attacks on Tehran. Brent crude topped $100/bbl. IEA coordinated record 400M barrel strategic reserve release. UNSC demanded Iran halt Gulf attacks. Iran threatened to target US tech company offices.
Key facts
- •IDF struck Taleghan nuclear compound near Tehran — AMAD Project weapons development site
- •IRGC and Hezbollah declared first joint operation — coordinated missile and rocket fire at Israel
- •Iran fired 4th ballistic missile salvo at Israel since midnight — sirens across Jerusalem
- •Hezbollah rocket destroyed home in Moshav Haniel, central Israel — safe room saved occupants
- •Iranian drones damaged Kuwait International Airport — material damage, no casualties
- •Iranian attack caused major fire at oil tanks near Bahrain International Airport
- •Iranian explosive boats attacked Iraqi fuel tankers — 1 killed, Iraq shut all oil terminals
- •Saudi Arabia downed drone near Riyadh embassy district; intercepted Shaybah drones 3x
- •IDF wide-scale strikes on Lebanon + Tehran; killed 7 in Beirut seafront strike
- •US CENTCOM destroyed Iranian aircraft at Kerman Airport — C-130, P-3, Il-76
- •Poland foiled Iranian cyberattack on national nuclear research center
- •Up to 3.2 million displaced inside Iran — UNHCR
- •Australia pulls non-essential diplomats from Israel and UAE
- •Defense Minister Katz warns: IDF told to prepare expansion into Lebanon
- •First 6 days cost US >$11B; war tracker >$17B total at ~$1B/day
- •Brent crude >$100/bbl despite IEA 400M barrel strategic reserve release
Casualties
| Faction | Killed | Wounded | Civilians | Injured |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| us | 7 | 140 | — | — |
| israel | 23 | 115 | 25 | 102 |
| iran | 2800 | — | 850 | 4700 |
| lebanon | 500 | — | 115 | 480 |
| irgc | 560 | — | — | — |
| hezbollah | 290 | — | — | — |
| kuwait | 4 | — | 4 | 10 |
| uae | 7 | — | 7 | 18 |
| saudi arabia | 4 | — | 4 | 10 |
| bahrain | 1 | — | 1 | 3 |
| iraq | 4 | — | 3 | 10 |
Economic impact
Brent Crude
$104/bbl
up
US War Cost
$11.3B (6 days)
up
Total War Cost
>$17B
up
IEA Reserve Release
400M bbl
neutral
Iran Oil Exports
1.5M bbl/day
down
Iraq Oil Terminals
Shut
down
Hormuz Escorts
Not ready (US)
down
Brent crude has surged past $100/bbl as Iran enforces a Strait of Hormuz closure strategy, with new Supreme Leader Khamenei formally codifying it as leverage. The US military admitted it cannot yet escort tankers — all assets committed to the air campaign. Iraq shut all oil terminals after Iranian explosive boats attacked two foreign tankers. The IEA coordinated a 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release across 32 countries. Pentagon briefed Congress the first six days cost $11.3 billion; total war tracker exceeds $17 billion. Iran continues exporting ~1.5M bbl/day to China despite the conflict.
Scenarios
Continued Attrition
40%Iran sustains Gulf attacks — Hormuz stays contested — no ceasefire pathway
Iran continues asymmetric attacks on Gulf infrastructure. IRGC-Hezbollah joint operations become routine. Hormuz remains closed. Oil above $100. US-Israel air campaign degrades Iranian capacity but cannot stop dispersed strikes. War cost exceeds $1B/day for US.
Lebanon Ground Escalation
35%IDF launches ground operation in southern Lebanon — Katz orders preparation
Defense Minister Katz has now explicitly warned Lebanon and instructed IDF to prepare for expansion. Golani Brigade transferred to Northern Command. Hezbollah 200-rocket barrage demonstrates continued threat. Ground operation would aim to push Hezbollah back from border but risks major casualties and deeper Iranian involvement.
Iranian Tempo Collapse
15%Air campaign degrades Iranian strike capacity — attack frequency drops
CENTCOM destroyed Iranian aircraft at Kerman. Over 5,500 targets struck. Trump claims Iran at end of the line. But Iran still firing 4 ballistic salvos per night and hitting Gulf infrastructure across 5+ countries.
Diplomatic Off-Ramp
10%Pezeshkian 3 conditions create framework — but no active channel
Pezeshkian outlined conditions: rights recognition, reparations, security guarantees. But Iran spurned two Witkoff ceasefire messages. Trump demands regime change. No active negotiation channel visible.